Will we see driver shortages again in the future? Dr. Dale Belman: “Our research indicates that much of what’s been going on in the trucking industry in the past is more what we might call ‘churning.’ It’s not that there aren’t enough drivers, but that drivers aren’t staying with any given fleet very long. “The result is that fleets are constantly losing drivers and constantly spending resources to recruit and train new ones. But what’s really happening is that their previous drivers are simply going to other fleets and their new drivers are coming from other fleets. “If there truly were a driver ‘shortage,’ we would have expected to see wages rising and tractors sitting idle. And we really didn’t see that.”

Still, driver wages have gone up, haven’t they?

“They have, but not at a very high rate. While truck drivers earned three times the wages of fast food workers in the late 1970s, they now earn only twice what fast food workers earn.

“During the last recession, several of the largest trucking companies reduced the entry wages of truck drivers. This contrasts to most of the economy where wages don’t fall during recessions. There is even a famous economics book entitled Why Wages Don’t Fall During Recessions.

“Trucking has seen smaller wage increases than most of the economy, particularly the lower wage parts of the economy.”

So the key is being able to hold onto the drivers you have?

“It may be. But again, consider the fast food business. Many of those companies actually want high turnover, at least among some of their employees, because it helps keep wages down.”

But they don’t want high turnover for all employees?

“Where special skills are needed, as in management, being able to retain good employees is a benefit. If you’re dealing with very low skill levels, as long as you can always recruit replacements, retention works against you, because employees expect wages to rise if they remain with a firm. It results in having to increase pay.”

How does that relate to trucking?

“Trucking is an industry whose structure encourages high driver turnover. For much of the industry, the skills are portable: Drivers can move from one company to another and start being productive with minimal training.

“It’s not that there are no skills required, but that those skills are standardized. Drivers can move to another company any time they like.”

Are there exceptions?

“Just as in the fast food business, there are segments of trucking that require special skills. Jobs like specialized heavy hauling, automobile hauling, hazardous materials or bulk liquid hauling.

“In those areas, trucking firms may have a large investment in training time, and want to try to hold on to skilled drivers.”

Are you saying some trucking firms don’t want to retain drivers?

“It’s a business decision. If retention means paying ever-increasing wages – when there’s a ready supply of qualified drivers willing to work at lower wages – it may be in the firm’s best interest not to try to retain drivers.”

And are there drivers who ‘enjoy’ jumping around?

“Just as to some extent, drivers are ‘interchangeable’ to trucking companies, trucking companies can be ‘interchangeable’ to drivers.

“We find there is little that ties drivers to firms.

For union drivers, pension plans are administered by the union rather than the employer. This allows drivers to move between firms.

“Even in non-union shops, pension plans aren’t all that good, compensation increases are small and there’s virtually no seniority system. We talked to drivers who had years with their firms, but who on average still had less than $5 thousand in their 401K plans.”

What can we conclude about driver turnover?

“The industry is structured so that turnover is virtually guaranteed. For the most part, drivers have portable skills and fleets have nearly interchangeable needs.

“Wages aren’t high, especially when you consider that our data indicates most drivers work about 60 hours a week. Many drivers aren’t loyal and neither are many of the firms they work for.”

How do owner operators fit in?

“Only about a quarter of owner operators are what we’d call ‘good businesspeople.’ At least, as measured in terms of the income they reported to us.

“Another quarter are, in our estimation, poor businesspeople. They would be better off simply going to work as employees of a trucking company.

“The rest, about half, are doing about as well as they would if they were trucking company employees.”

Is it different for leased owner operators?

“When a colleague looked at lease contracts under which many owner operators work, they looked much more like employment contracts than lease agreements.

“So, the leased owner operator isn’t very much different from an employee. Except, of course, that they might have all the responsibilities of the self-employed.”

What if a fleet DOES want to maximize driver retention?

“There are certain things that will help fleets keep drivers. In our data, two factors really stand out, even though they may not be terribly surprising: higher wages and more paid days off.

“Although half the drivers we interviewed had been with their current employer for 18 months or less, we also found that just one percent increase in pay could extend that time by about an additional nine months. That’s 50 percent longer than typical.

“And, adding just one paid day off per year could add nearly two months to their tenure.”

What does that suggest?

“Our data shows that a higher proportion of truck drivers, by comparison to other blue collar workers, are married, and that their marriages seem to last longer, in spite of what you might guess, given the long periods away from home.

“And, we see very high rates of driver retention where there is high predictability in schedules. Drivers who haul along regular routes on regular schedules know when they are going to get home. They can schedule their lives, and tend to stick with those jobs.

“That suggests the ability to have a good family life has a great deal to do with driver retention.”

Are there characteristics of the drivers themselves that have an effect?

“We found some significant differences between older and younger drivers. We could characterize older drivers as ‘marathoners’ and younger drivers as ‘sprinters.’

“The older driver seems to see the job as a long-term thing. They try to pace themselves, get enough rest and reduce their stress. They want to be sure they won’t be mental or physical ‘wrecks’ tomorrow – so they’ll be able to do their jobs. And keep on doing them.

“Younger drivers are often literally more ‘hard-driving,’ getting less sleep, driving faster and longer.

In many cases, they end up leaving the business completely – or want to.

Can technology, like automatic transmissions, bring women into the driving workforce?

“We don’t think so. What we see is that family and children are still very important in women’s lives. Working a 60-hour week and being away from home for long and possibly unpredictable periods of time doesn’t fit their plans.

“For jobs involving regular routes, where driving is essentially day labor, it might work. But automatic transmissions won’t make it happen.

“Even local routes may pose a problem if work time is uncertain or drivers are expected to work ten or twelve hours per day.

“Neither schools nor day cares are well adapted to such long work days, so most driving jobs are at odds with women’s roles as mothers. This isn’t to say that there are not women who cannot be induced to work as a driver.

“In the area of long distance trucking, most of the women in that labor force are older. Their children are grown, and often, they are part of a ‘team.’ But this is unusual, and women are not going to provide a large pool of labor for the trucking industry.”

Do you expect the new hours of service rules to change driver retention?

“Time will tell. Under the new rules, drivers will be allowed to drive for 11 hours each day, one hour more than in the past.

“That represents an increase in productivity for fleets. They might get 10 percent more miles without needing any new drivers. But, the total on-duty time has been effectively cut by two hours, to 14 hours.

“That poses a problem for fleets who have drivers sitting in their trucks, in line at dock facilities, waiting to load or unload.

“Most fleets don’t pay for waiting time, and for many shippers and consignees, waiting time has been free. As long as the driver didn’t run out of available on-duty time, it didn’t matter how long the wait was.

“However, many fleets with union drivers, where most were being paid both by the hour and the mile, have been charging for waiting time. What happened was that consignees would wave union drivers to their docks, ahead of non-union drivers.”

Even if the non-union drivers had been waiting longer?

“Yes, because there was no cost for their waiting time. With the new hours of service rules, there could be two hours a day less of that ‘free’ time.

“What that may do is enforce a discipline on both shippers and consignees to improve their dock management. The result could be better productivity for everyone, including the trucking company.

“Drivers could benefit too. They may find that they are able to use more of their on-duty hours as driving hours, and earn more money.

“That’s what we mean when we say that the ‘shock effect’ of a new regulation can sometimes make it look like a disaster, but actually be a blessing, because it forces everyone to become more efficient.”

How can we find out more about your research?

“Michigan State University press will be publishing the results of our work in book form very soon. The title will be Sailors of the Concrete Sea. We hope it will contribute to a better understanding of this vital national resource, truck drivers.”

Thank you, Dr. Belman, for sharing some of what you’ve learned.
We’ll let our readers know as soon as your book is available.